And the Oscar goes to…

BLANCHETT

Who will make Oscar history this year? When we polled 42 of Tinseltown’s award-giving bodies, including 33 groups on the critics’ grid, the list we came up with revealed clear favorites in five of the six major categories:

With her 18th nomination for her portrayal of a foul-mouthed, cancer-stricken matriarch in “August: Osage County,” Meryl Streep has broken her own record—even without winning in her category—though she is by no means the frontrunner. That distinction belongs to Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), who has 27 wins.

LETO

Blanchett’s closest rival, Sandra Bullock (“Gravity”), only has four awards, while Meryl, a fixture on the nominations list, has one—as does Amy Adams (“American Hustle”), who’s nominated for the first time as a lead actress, after four previous nods in the Supporting Actress category.

Judi Dench (“Philomena”) may not go home with a golden statuette, but her moving turn as a septuagenarian who discovers some shocking secrets about the son she gave away as a teenager is a performance that will linger in viewers’ minds for a long time. (Incidentally, this year’s Best Actress lineup is the oldest ever, with an average age of 55!) And, we’ll say it again, Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks”) should have been in the running!

Like Blanchett, Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”) has long been considered to have a lock in his category, Best Supporting Actor, with 26 awards, including wins at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles FCC and Critics’ Choice. Completing the nominees are Michael Fassbender of “12 Years A Slave” (four wins), Barkhad Abdi of “Captain Phillips” (two), Jonah Hill (“Wolf of Wall Street”) and Bradley Cooper (“American Hustle”).

NYONG’O

Crucial wins

Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years A Slave”) has 23 awards in the Best Actor lineup, but “Dallas Buyers Club’s” Matthew McConaughey (nine wins) has crucial wins from SAG and Critics’ Choice—and Oscar voters will most likely reward him for his “dedication” to the acting craft: In “Dallas Buyers Club,” his physical transformation included shedding off 47 lbs to portray a true-to-life HIV-stricken, homophobic redneck.

If only five-time nominee Leonardo DiCaprio were as popular with his peers as George Clooney, he would have won a long time ago: He was first cited at age 19 for 1993’s “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?”—and should have been nominated for his gutsy portrayals in “J. Edgar” and “Django Unchained.” Completing the quintet are Christian Bale (“American Hustle”) and Cannes winner Bruce Dern (“Nebraska”), our favorite performance in the superb lineup.

MCCONAUGHEY

The Supporting Actress derby is too close to call: While it’s true that Jennifer Lawrence “only” has 12 wins compared to Lupita Nyong’o’s 19, “American Hustle’s” winsome ingénue got her accolades from the Golden Globes, the National Society of Film Critics and the New York Film Critics Circle.

If J Law wins, she will make Oscar history as the first person to win back-to-back Oscars in two separate categories (she won last year’s Best Actress plum for “Silver Linings Playbook”). This year, however, we’re placing our bet on “12 Years’” fabulous first-time nominee.

The adorable June Squibb (“Nebraska”), Julia Roberts (“August: Osage County”) and the quirky Sally Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine”) round out the list.

The US film market released more than 650 films in 2013—compare that to India’s annual output of approximately 1,200 titles, or the Philippines’ 161 movies last year.

The huge number of diverse choices makes it difficult for the Academy’s 5,800-plus members to separate the grain from the chaff. But, the 86th edition of the Oscars (Monday morning in Manila), hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, prides itself with exceptional choices in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.

Alfonso Cuaron (23 nods) should go home with the directing Oscar for his groundbreaking achievement in “Gravity,” which is remarkable because it has both flash and substance—but, Steve McQueen (“12 Years A Slave”) just might pull a golden surprise. Also raring for an upset: Martin Scorsese (“Wolf of Wall Street”), David O. Russell (“American Hustle”) and Alexander Payne (“Nebraska”).

The nine-nominee Best Picture race is an exciting four-way among “12 Years A Slave” (24 wins), “Gravity” (seven), Spike Jonze’s “Her” (seven), and “American Hustle” (three)—but, as they say, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings!