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(From left) Antoinette Jadaone, Kiko Pangilinan, and Bam Aquino. Images: FDCP, Facebook/Bam Aquino
With Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan maintaining their spots in the Senate “Magic 12,” director-writer Antoinette Jadaone couldn’t help but ponder the importance of pre-election surveys and their impact on registered voters.
Aquino and Pangilinan are poised to win the senatorial race after ranking second and fifth, respectively, in the senatorial race based on the partial, unofficial results of the Commission on Elections (Comelec), as of 5:16 p.m. on Tuesday, May 13.
Aquino has 20,631,471 votes while Pangilinan earned 15,083,787 votes.
This led Jadaone to wonder about the impact of pre-election surveys, which she said tended to precondition the mind of voters.
“Genuinely curious: Kiko at Bam were quite far in the surveys, what happened? Was it just meant for mind-conditioning?” she said on her X account.
genuinely curious: ang layo ni Kiko at Bam sa surveys, ano nangyari? pang-mind-conditioning lang talaga?
— Toñet (@tonetjadaone) May 12, 2025
In response to one @jpbpunzalan, Jadaone said in the May 1 survey of Publicus Asia for senatorial preference, Aquino obtained 41%, second to reelectionist Senator Bong Go, who was leading with 42%.
Korek sa Publicus nga raw #2 si Bam!
— Toñet (@tonetjadaone) May 12, 2025
Those who shared or commented on Jadaone’s post blamed the discrepancy to “sampling error,” while others said surveys were based on the “consensus of a certain group of people.”
most likely sampling error talaga https://t.co/O1m6wnB6sI
— nina (@hoonerigene) May 13, 2025
Agree sa sampling error. Unang tanong talaga is kung nacapture ba accurately ang demographics. https://t.co/8c0yT8AIbE
— Ron (@ronintosmthn) May 12, 2025
Maybe 2 things.
– Demographic profile of the sample population is skewed and does not well-represent the demogs of the total population – age, employment sector/income, geographic location.
– Sampling collection could be outdated. Household traditional vs digital. https://t.co/Qbc2nHLTzM— 𝓹𝓪𝓽𝓻𝓲𝓬𝓲𝓪 𝓪𝓷𝓷𝓮 💫 (@patriciampablo) May 12, 2025
Actually, survey ay consensus lang ng iilang tao…. Hindi siya consensus ng pangkalahatan… Meaning, ang iilang bilang ng tao lang ang sumasagot sa survey kakatawan sa maaaring panlasa ng masa. I think ang magandang nadulot nito ay mas lalong pinaghirapan ng Kiko-Bam ❣️❣️❣️ https://t.co/BEaDLO93ze
— Bittergourd (@ITSYOURMERLATZ) May 12, 2025
ilang botante ang hindi bumoto ng candidates kasi “non-winnable” or nag undervote kasi baka maalanganin yung spots ni bam & kiko ??
we could’ve been more strategic.
ngl i voted for abby & ping. and i think more of us should’ve considered VPLR’s endorsements too. https://t.co/4zRVWqqkSt— juju (@taetotheyongg) May 12, 2025
Most surveys are done house to house. Mostly lunch time sila pumupunta and kung sino lang ung nasa bahay ang tatanungin kasi gusto ma din nila makauwi agad.
Most likely, nasa work or school ang millenials and genz kaya wala sila sa survey. https://t.co/aM3NB6HlMJ
— maryela 🌼 (@_forsvt13_) May 13, 2025
bet is on changing demographics talaga. the pulse of the younger generations may have been unaccounted for / underreported all this time hence the “unexpected” climb ni Kiko at Bam sa senatorial race. https://t.co/qZgqEch38e
— pau (@paulimers) May 13, 2025
In Pulse Asia’s April 2025 pre-election survey, Aquino, with 28.6%, earned the 12th to 18th spot, with Camille Villar and Rodante Marcoleta, who got 29% and 28.3%, respectively. Pangilinan ranked 19th with 19.8% and had no “statistical chance” of winning.
On the other hand, a May 2025 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed Aquino and Pangilinan on the 16th and 17th ranks, respectively, having preference ratings at 23% and 21%.
The two survey firms have yet to formally issue a statement to address the supposed “discrepancies” in the results of the surveys to the actual voting results, but Ronald Holmes, president of Pulse Asia, said in an interview with ABS-CBN that there were certain factors that could have contributed to the situation.
One of them, he said, was the supposed time gap between the pre-election survey and the actual elections, where there had been “heightened campaign activities” that could have led to the change in the voter’s preferences.